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FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: OUR POLLS ARE ALL WRONG

No.533395 ViewReplyOriginalReport
Fivethirtyeight.com announces that Trump is far less popular than the widely trusted fivethirtyeight.com weighted polling averages suggest
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-may-be-even-more-unpopular-than-his-approval-rating-shows/

Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy.

But does the standard presidential approval question actually capture what voters think of Trump’s job performance? There are several reasons it might not tell the full story. For one, in this hyper-partisan era, presidential approval numbers have become increasingly polarized and don’t move around all that much, so they may now say more about which “side” people are on (pro-Trump or anti-Trump, Republican or Democrat) than voters’ actual evaluation of how the president is doing.

So we (Enns and Schuldt) have worked to develop a hopefully more nuanced approach to measuring presidential approval, where we ask respondents how favorably they feel toward Trump relative to other notable Republicans. By not explicitly asking respondents whether they approve or disapprove of the president, we avoid forcing respondents to take sides, as they do in the standard presidential approval question.